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	<title>Comments on: executing a flawed strategy</title>
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	<description>niv&#039;s home.  in iceland.</description>
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		<title>By: does carlos pena suck? &#171; the ravings of a lunatic</title>
		<link>http://niv.is/2010/03/16/executing-a-flawed-strategy/comment-page-1/#comment-378</link>
		<dc:creator>does carlos pena suck? &#171; the ravings of a lunatic</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 21 May 2010 01:09:33 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://niv.is/?p=115#comment-378</guid>
		<description>[...] know, i know, more baseball. but one of the big acquisitions in my fantasy draft this year was carlos pena, the first baseman for the tampa bay rays. i argued back in march: i’ve [...]</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[...] know, i know, more baseball. but one of the big acquisitions in my fantasy draft this year was carlos pena, the first baseman for the tampa bay rays. i argued back in march: i’ve [...]</p>
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		<title>By: making moves &#171; the ravings of a lunatic</title>
		<link>http://niv.is/2010/03/16/executing-a-flawed-strategy/comment-page-1/#comment-295</link>
		<dc:creator>making moves &#171; the ravings of a lunatic</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 25 Mar 2010 20:41:47 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://niv.is/?p=115#comment-295</guid>
		<description>[...] About        &#171; executing a flawed strategy [...]</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[...] About        &laquo; executing a flawed strategy [...]</p>
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		<title>By: Dave S.</title>
		<link>http://niv.is/2010/03/16/executing-a-flawed-strategy/comment-page-1/#comment-283</link>
		<dc:creator>Dave S.</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 18 Mar 2010 20:44:49 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://niv.is/?p=115#comment-283</guid>
		<description>Just like everyone else, a big part of my plan was to get back the guys that were voted off my team (Josh Johnson and Aaron Hill).  I figured there was a chance I would lose Johnson, since I was only prepared to spend about $25 on him, and he ended up going for well over $30.  I was able to keep several other good SPs (Felix, Wandy, and Nolasco) and I wasn&#039;t too worried about losing him.  However, I didn&#039;t think there was any way Hill would go for more than $25 (which would be $20 after the coupon), but Jee Hang&#039;s proxy bidder went absolutely insane and bid him up to $30, which was far too much.  I loved Hill last year because I had him for $4 and he hit 36 homers, but I doubt he will hit that many again, and he is not worth even close to $30.  So I had to find some good MIs during the auction, and I think I did ok with the Hudson/Scott Sizemore combo.

The rest of my strategy was to get A-Rod back (which I was able to do for a relatively reasonable $53) and to get 2 or 3 big-hitting OFs.  I think I probably overpaid for Quentin at $30, but if he&#039;s healthy, he could have a monster season (like he did in 2008).  I also got Pence for $27, which I think was a good deal.  Everyone said I was on &quot;tilt&quot; because his name came up immediately after I lost Hill, but Pence was one of the OFs I intended to try to get.  I was also able to get Delmon Young for a very good price, and he is a potential sleeper because everyone has already written him off as a bust.  If he stinks, then I only wasted $7, but he could be very good.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Just like everyone else, a big part of my plan was to get back the guys that were voted off my team (Josh Johnson and Aaron Hill).  I figured there was a chance I would lose Johnson, since I was only prepared to spend about $25 on him, and he ended up going for well over $30.  I was able to keep several other good SPs (Felix, Wandy, and Nolasco) and I wasn&#8217;t too worried about losing him.  However, I didn&#8217;t think there was any way Hill would go for more than $25 (which would be $20 after the coupon), but Jee Hang&#8217;s proxy bidder went absolutely insane and bid him up to $30, which was far too much.  I loved Hill last year because I had him for $4 and he hit 36 homers, but I doubt he will hit that many again, and he is not worth even close to $30.  So I had to find some good MIs during the auction, and I think I did ok with the Hudson/Scott Sizemore combo.</p>
<p>The rest of my strategy was to get A-Rod back (which I was able to do for a relatively reasonable $53) and to get 2 or 3 big-hitting OFs.  I think I probably overpaid for Quentin at $30, but if he&#8217;s healthy, he could have a monster season (like he did in 2008).  I also got Pence for $27, which I think was a good deal.  Everyone said I was on &#8220;tilt&#8221; because his name came up immediately after I lost Hill, but Pence was one of the OFs I intended to try to get.  I was also able to get Delmon Young for a very good price, and he is a potential sleeper because everyone has already written him off as a bust.  If he stinks, then I only wasted $7, but he could be very good.</p>
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		<title>By: Allan</title>
		<link>http://niv.is/2010/03/16/executing-a-flawed-strategy/comment-page-1/#comment-282</link>
		<dc:creator>Allan</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 18 Mar 2010 02:47:11 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://niv.is/?p=115#comment-282</guid>
		<description>Odd draft.  I really like my team, but that was by far more due to the pieces I had in place before the draft, then the draft itself.  I&#039;m actually pretty unhappy with the way the draft turned out, though I did accomplish my easily met &quot;goals&quot;.

My goas were to (1) pick up 2 stud pitchers, (2) a stud 1B, (3) a stud bat... somewhere.  I gave myself about $160 to solve this problem.  Not exactly the toughest of tasks.  Against all odds (and with two coupons), I managed to get my guys.  But, in hindsight, the starting pitching was a couple of bucks less than I thought it would be - I expected guys like Lester, Wainwright, and Verlander to go for a little more than they did - but when I picked up Santana (before those other guys came up), I didn&#039;t really get a discount.  

Having overestimated what people would spend on pitching, I underestimated what they would spend on big bats.  Which meant that my 1B pickup (Mark Reynolds) isn&#039;t as good as Fielder and friends.  

Since I spent under my $160 allocation, I had extra money.  But there were no really good bats by then.  So instead of picking up another $40 superstar, I wound up with Hawpe ($25) and Chris Davis ($12).  They&#039;re both improvements over what I had, but maybe not enough of one considering the $37 I spent on them.

If lack of holes will win you the title, then I&#039;m in great shape.  (Well, except for backup catcher.  But I figure I have all season to find someone who can play a decent 40 games for me).  But I can see plenty of scenarios where someone elses superstars, plus a few lucky performances, outperform my team of &quot;pretty good&quot; at every position.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Odd draft.  I really like my team, but that was by far more due to the pieces I had in place before the draft, then the draft itself.  I&#8217;m actually pretty unhappy with the way the draft turned out, though I did accomplish my easily met &#8220;goals&#8221;.</p>
<p>My goas were to (1) pick up 2 stud pitchers, (2) a stud 1B, (3) a stud bat&#8230; somewhere.  I gave myself about $160 to solve this problem.  Not exactly the toughest of tasks.  Against all odds (and with two coupons), I managed to get my guys.  But, in hindsight, the starting pitching was a couple of bucks less than I thought it would be &#8211; I expected guys like Lester, Wainwright, and Verlander to go for a little more than they did &#8211; but when I picked up Santana (before those other guys came up), I didn&#8217;t really get a discount.  </p>
<p>Having overestimated what people would spend on pitching, I underestimated what they would spend on big bats.  Which meant that my 1B pickup (Mark Reynolds) isn&#8217;t as good as Fielder and friends.  </p>
<p>Since I spent under my $160 allocation, I had extra money.  But there were no really good bats by then.  So instead of picking up another $40 superstar, I wound up with Hawpe ($25) and Chris Davis ($12).  They&#8217;re both improvements over what I had, but maybe not enough of one considering the $37 I spent on them.</p>
<p>If lack of holes will win you the title, then I&#8217;m in great shape.  (Well, except for backup catcher.  But I figure I have all season to find someone who can play a decent 40 games for me).  But I can see plenty of scenarios where someone elses superstars, plus a few lucky performances, outperform my team of &#8220;pretty good&#8221; at every position.</p>
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		<title>By: Chad</title>
		<link>http://niv.is/2010/03/16/executing-a-flawed-strategy/comment-page-1/#comment-281</link>
		<dc:creator>Chad</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 17 Mar 2010 18:49:08 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://niv.is/?p=115#comment-281</guid>
		<description>Without going into as much detail as Geoff, my entire draft strategy was predicated on buying back my coupon guys (McCann and Verlander) for what I thought were reasonable prices ($20 for McCann post coupon and $30 for Verlander post-coupon). To be honest, I didn&#039;t think anyone would bid over those prices without the coupons, but I was clearly wrong. With all due respect to Thad and Horwitz, I think they both overpaid significantly for those guys, particularly 42 on Verlander.

Having lost out on both of those guys, I had to make some changes to my strategy. I had intended to spend on 2 SP and 2 bats (1B or OF to serve as Util and MI) but ended up being priced out of every MI I was interested in, winding up with Akinori Iwamura and Ryan Theriot as a platoon, which just won&#039;t do. I ended up overspending on my 1B and OF players, getting both Dunn and Manny, and the result was that I did not get the OF depth I had hoped for, making it a bit more difficult on me to trade an OF, which I probably need to do.

At the same time, the lack of available pitching hurt a lot after I lost Verlander. I appreciate the generosity, Geoff, and I am quite happy with Javy, but the Webb-Burnett-Kazmir trio in me 3-5 slots (behind Billingsley and Javy) is pretty high risk.

If a) Webb comes back healthy by May, b) Kazmir finds his form again, c) Burnett gets some luck and keeps his ERA and WHIP down to match his K numbers, or d) an unexpected starter makes the leap for me (Rondon? Masterson? Erbe? Alderson? Young?) I might be able to piece together a competitive rotation. My offense should play just fine (particularly if I can fill MI) but I am not sure I have the bullets to trade for a MI and a SP or two, and I am not sure I can win without filling both those holes.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Without going into as much detail as Geoff, my entire draft strategy was predicated on buying back my coupon guys (McCann and Verlander) for what I thought were reasonable prices ($20 for McCann post coupon and $30 for Verlander post-coupon). To be honest, I didn&#8217;t think anyone would bid over those prices without the coupons, but I was clearly wrong. With all due respect to Thad and Horwitz, I think they both overpaid significantly for those guys, particularly 42 on Verlander.</p>
<p>Having lost out on both of those guys, I had to make some changes to my strategy. I had intended to spend on 2 SP and 2 bats (1B or OF to serve as Util and MI) but ended up being priced out of every MI I was interested in, winding up with Akinori Iwamura and Ryan Theriot as a platoon, which just won&#8217;t do. I ended up overspending on my 1B and OF players, getting both Dunn and Manny, and the result was that I did not get the OF depth I had hoped for, making it a bit more difficult on me to trade an OF, which I probably need to do.</p>
<p>At the same time, the lack of available pitching hurt a lot after I lost Verlander. I appreciate the generosity, Geoff, and I am quite happy with Javy, but the Webb-Burnett-Kazmir trio in me 3-5 slots (behind Billingsley and Javy) is pretty high risk.</p>
<p>If a) Webb comes back healthy by May, b) Kazmir finds his form again, c) Burnett gets some luck and keeps his ERA and WHIP down to match his K numbers, or d) an unexpected starter makes the leap for me (Rondon? Masterson? Erbe? Alderson? Young?) I might be able to piece together a competitive rotation. My offense should play just fine (particularly if I can fill MI) but I am not sure I have the bullets to trade for a MI and a SP or two, and I am not sure I can win without filling both those holes.</p>
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		<title>By: niv</title>
		<link>http://niv.is/2010/03/16/executing-a-flawed-strategy/comment-page-1/#comment-280</link>
		<dc:creator>niv</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 17 Mar 2010 18:37:39 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://niv.is/?p=115#comment-280</guid>
		<description>For the record, my goddamn c key was broken and that was frustrating me more than anything else.  But yeah, you didn&#039;t help the situation, jerk.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>For the record, my goddamn c key was broken and that was frustrating me more than anything else.  But yeah, you didn&#8217;t help the situation, jerk.</p>
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		<title>By: Josh</title>
		<link>http://niv.is/2010/03/16/executing-a-flawed-strategy/comment-page-1/#comment-279</link>
		<dc:creator>Josh</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 17 Mar 2010 18:36:06 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://niv.is/?p=115#comment-279</guid>
		<description>In my opinion this was the best auction draft we&#039;ve had to date. Outside of my continuous internet connection fail, this draft was (at least in my recollection) the fastest and smoothest auction that I&#039;ve been a part of.

Perhaps it&#039;s too early for me to declare this auction a success for my team, but given my results/participation level from last year, I think I managed to at least step in the right direction. I think this was my best auction performance so far.

I gotta say I didn&#039;t expect Mauer to go for less than $50 (Mauer + Pujols = yay), but then when I also nabbed Victor for only $17 I was pretty pleased. If I don&#039;t compete this year I think I at least have some of the better trade chips.

Though I did manage to get some quality value at the top of my rotation (Peavy + Wainwright for $52 total), once again I will depend on Liriano to come through as I have zero depth.

My OF sucks, and I overpaid for a couple guys there out of need/panic, but I&#039;m hoping my MI value guys can over-perform to balance that out.

All in all, I thought it was a fun, well run auction and I even got to bid up Horwitz/Sugarman a few times successfully and even get Niv to emoquit nominations. Teehee.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>In my opinion this was the best auction draft we&#8217;ve had to date. Outside of my continuous internet connection fail, this draft was (at least in my recollection) the fastest and smoothest auction that I&#8217;ve been a part of.</p>
<p>Perhaps it&#8217;s too early for me to declare this auction a success for my team, but given my results/participation level from last year, I think I managed to at least step in the right direction. I think this was my best auction performance so far.</p>
<p>I gotta say I didn&#8217;t expect Mauer to go for less than $50 (Mauer + Pujols = yay), but then when I also nabbed Victor for only $17 I was pretty pleased. If I don&#8217;t compete this year I think I at least have some of the better trade chips.</p>
<p>Though I did manage to get some quality value at the top of my rotation (Peavy + Wainwright for $52 total), once again I will depend on Liriano to come through as I have zero depth.</p>
<p>My OF sucks, and I overpaid for a couple guys there out of need/panic, but I&#8217;m hoping my MI value guys can over-perform to balance that out.</p>
<p>All in all, I thought it was a fun, well run auction and I even got to bid up Horwitz/Sugarman a few times successfully and even get Niv to emoquit nominations. Teehee.</p>
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		<title>By: geoff</title>
		<link>http://niv.is/2010/03/16/executing-a-flawed-strategy/comment-page-1/#comment-278</link>
		<dc:creator>geoff</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 17 Mar 2010 13:05:38 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://niv.is/?p=115#comment-278</guid>
		<description>good work! fantasy baseball auction recaps are so much better than fucking poker recaps. even if theyre the same thing.

i think i give myself a b-/c+ overall. i came in planning to spend about $160 on 4 big-time guys, at least 3 of those on offense. i had big holes at 3B, MI, and 2 OF spots, and secondary holes at 1B/UTIL and SP. 

so i started out with wright, howard, and bay for a combined $117 in the first 20 picks - perfect, could not ask for a better start. 

for the next 90 mins i didn&#039;t win a guy, which was ok as i thought i could get some good value later on. when that guy - javy vazquez - came... i just let chad take him. i had more than enough cap room, and he would have been perfect for my team. but i had been sitting on my hands for so long that i just had lost that aggressiveness that you need in an auction draft against 11 other guys.

after that the wheels came off for the next hour. first, i wanted to show aggressiveness on harden so i came out strong with a $10 bid (hoping someone would bid $11 - my max for him) and no one matched. then i somehow wound up with both tejada and polanco, which i guess is an ok MI platoon (and less expensive than kelly johnson!) but not at all what i had wanted. and then i won papelbon for some reason because im addicted to closers.

after that i was able to calm down a bit and am quite happy with my last 10 picks. but i have no idea what the hell i was doing from 3:23 to 4:41 EDT on sunday.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>good work! fantasy baseball auction recaps are so much better than fucking poker recaps. even if theyre the same thing.</p>
<p>i think i give myself a b-/c+ overall. i came in planning to spend about $160 on 4 big-time guys, at least 3 of those on offense. i had big holes at 3B, MI, and 2 OF spots, and secondary holes at 1B/UTIL and SP. </p>
<p>so i started out with wright, howard, and bay for a combined $117 in the first 20 picks &#8211; perfect, could not ask for a better start. </p>
<p>for the next 90 mins i didn&#8217;t win a guy, which was ok as i thought i could get some good value later on. when that guy &#8211; javy vazquez &#8211; came&#8230; i just let chad take him. i had more than enough cap room, and he would have been perfect for my team. but i had been sitting on my hands for so long that i just had lost that aggressiveness that you need in an auction draft against 11 other guys.</p>
<p>after that the wheels came off for the next hour. first, i wanted to show aggressiveness on harden so i came out strong with a $10 bid (hoping someone would bid $11 &#8211; my max for him) and no one matched. then i somehow wound up with both tejada and polanco, which i guess is an ok MI platoon (and less expensive than kelly johnson!) but not at all what i had wanted. and then i won papelbon for some reason because im addicted to closers.</p>
<p>after that i was able to calm down a bit and am quite happy with my last 10 picks. but i have no idea what the hell i was doing from 3:23 to 4:41 EDT on sunday.</p>
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		<title>By: niv</title>
		<link>http://niv.is/2010/03/16/executing-a-flawed-strategy/comment-page-1/#comment-277</link>
		<dc:creator>niv</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 17 Mar 2010 07:57:25 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://niv.is/?p=115#comment-277</guid>
		<description>thad also brings up a good point - while i did reach a bit on pena price-wise, the price of fielder/cabrera (and braun for that matter) made the $37 i spent on pena look slightly better in retrospect.  and like thad said, i got pena really early, which in this case worked to my advantage.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>thad also brings up a good point &#8211; while i did reach a bit on pena price-wise, the price of fielder/cabrera (and braun for that matter) made the $37 i spent on pena look slightly better in retrospect.  and like thad said, i got pena really early, which in this case worked to my advantage.</p>
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		<title>By: niv</title>
		<link>http://niv.is/2010/03/16/executing-a-flawed-strategy/comment-page-1/#comment-276</link>
		<dc:creator>niv</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 17 Mar 2010 07:54:51 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://niv.is/?p=115#comment-276</guid>
		<description>Our first draft was in 2006.  So yes, this was our 5th draft.  Doh.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Our first draft was in 2006.  So yes, this was our 5th draft.  Doh.</p>
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